With nine months of 2009 already behind us, the question is: “Where will the full year new vehicle industry end up for 2009?”.
Just over twelve months back, the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US brought the beginning of what we now call the “Global Financial Crisis”, with several major countries around the globe falling into recession. One of the major industries impacted by the GFC has been the Automotive Industry with sales globally falling by about one third over the previous year. In the US, the biggest market on the globe, vehicle sales September year-to-date 2009 are down 27.4% on the same time last year, with the full year 2009 volume forecast at just over 10 million units. The industry was running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of approximately 16.5 million units prior to the GFC.
As with the remainder of the globe, the vehicle industry in Australia was also impacted, but by a lower amount. In addition, because of the strength of the Australian economy and action taken by the Federal Government, Australia avoided falling into recession, by the technical term, at least.
During this period, all Australian vehicle manufacturers and distributors took immediate actions to cut back production and reduce inventory levels to meet projected full year industry volume. Most manufacturers and automotive bodies were forecasting the Automotive Industry in Australia for 2009 to be 850,000 units or lower.
Autoteam Australia Consulting did not agree with these forecasts and late last year released our forecast the 2009 Automotive Industry at 925,000 units. Many in the industry questioned our forecast at this level.
With nine months already in the bank, the Automotive Industry is running at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of 912,000 units and with projected increased marketing activity prior to year end, Autoteam is very confident our full year forecast of 925,000 units will be achieved.